Introduction‍

The Bitcoin S2F trading rule is a bitcoin investing strategy whereby you buy btc 6 months before the havling and sell btc for 6 to 18 months after the havling. The below will show whether this holds true. I will breakdown 3 selling strategies. Selling at 6,12 and 18 months after the havling.

Source : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJXl_bCQMKc PlanB100TrillionUSD. Unfortunately the video was deleted but proof of the video can be found from the Way Back Machine here : https://web.archive.org/web/20230625123632/https://www.youtube.com/@PlanB_Bitcoin/videos

Dataset

The dataset with kaggle notebook can be found here : https://www.kaggle.com/code/lindleylawrence/bitcoin-s2f-trading-rule

Strategy 1 : Buying 6 months before halving and selling 6 months after halving

The below shows the a chart buy entry and exit prices. The blue arrows shows the buy dates and the green arrows show the sell dates.

We can summarize the above in a table form for calculations.

The above shows that your multiple decreases as we move into the future. You would have made 24 times your investment from July 2012 to May 2023 while you only would have made 1.69 times your investment from Nov 2019 to Nov 2020.

Strategy 2 : Buying 6 months before halving and selling 12 months after halving

Lets have a look at the chart and table for the 12 month strategy .

The above shows a better investment multiple for holding for 12 months instead of 6 months. The lowest return was for the holding between Jan 2016 and Jul 2017. This would still have given a 5.85 times on your investment which is pretty good for a year and a half.

Strategy 3 : Buying 6 months before halving and selling 18 months after halving

Now we look at the final chart and table.

Besides the 157x from US5.27 to US832.50 in the previous strategy, the above suggests that holding btc a for longer period after whichever halving tends to produce higher returns. I am curious too see what the next halving brings.

Until next time.

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